Its a Huge Upset When All the World Cup Favorites Win

Warren Buffett has a great investment track record. So perhaps it’s no accident that he declined to offer $1 billion for correctly predicting the outcome of all World Cup knockout stage games, as he did for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament games.The odds of winning Buffett’s NCAA challenge were about one in 7.4 billion, assuming you chose the favorite in each game as selected by FiveThirtyEight’s NCAA model. But the odds of correctly filling out a 16-team knockout tournament such as the World Cup are much shorter.In fact, though there have been some thrilling matches in the knockout stage so far — six of 12 have gone to extra time and only two were decided by more than one goal — the favorite has advanced every time (at least as according to the FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup predictions).Here is the breakdown so far. The following table lists the win probability for the FiveThirtyEight favorite as of the day of the match, along with the cumulative probability of the model having called all knockout stages correctly up to that point in time.For instance, the probability of correctly identifying the winners in each of the first four knockout matches — Brazil over Chile, Colombia over Uruguay, the Netherlands over Mexico and Costa Rica over Greece — was about 23 percent, or one chance in 4.3. And the chance of going 12 for 12, as the FiveThirtyEight favorites have done so far, is just one in 75.It’s an upset, in other words, when all the favorites prevail. On average, we’d have expected three or four upsets through this point in the knockout round.Of course, there are four matches left — counting the World Cup’s third-place playoff between the two semifinal losers. According to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, Brazil is favored over Germany on Tuesday (even after accounting for Neymar’s injury) and Argentina is slightly favored over the Netherlands on Wednesday. To complete a perfect knockout bracket, Germany would then need to beat the Netherlands in the consolation game while Brazil prevailed over Argentina in the final.All of the remaining matches look pretty close, so the FiveThirtyEight forecasts are likely to fail at some stage. If the model gets the matches right, however, it will have made good on a 1-in-553 chance of calling all 16 knockout stage winners correctly.Incidentally, this isn’t the huge success for the FiveThirtyEight model that it might seem. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts are probabilistic. Teams listed as 75 percent favorites are supposed to win about 75 percent of the time over the long run — not much less than that but also not any more often. There are supposed to be some upsets. If 75 percent favorites are winning 100 percent of the time over the long run instead, that means the forecasts are miscalibrated and overestimating the chances for the underdogs.In this case, the success of the favorites does seem to be mostly a matter of luck. Three games have gone to a penalty shootout so far — pre-match favorites might have a slight edge in those but not much of one. Mexico, meanwhile, was a few minutes away from defeating the Netherlands, and the U.S. was a few inches away from beating Belgium.The best way to test probabilistic forecasts is to check their calibration and to compare them against alternative probabilistic estimates. For example, if your model says that the U.S. has a 40 percent chance of beating Belgium and the consensus betting line gives the U.S. just a 25 percent chance instead, you should bet on the Americans — even though you expect Belgium to win most of the time. So far, the FiveThirtyEight forecasts have done well against consensus betting lines when used in this fashion — although that could reflect good luck, too. read more

STUDENT SPOTLIGHT 43 Wilmington Students Make Honor Roll At Austin Prep

first_imgREADING, MA — Congratulations to the 43 Wilmington students who made the Fourth Quarter Honor Roll for the 2017-2018 school year at Austin Prep.DISTINCTION (All A’s):Ryan AckerleyJoshua BartnickiCharles BurnhamThomas BurnhamDamian ElkinsLiam FaganAlessandro FanueleNicholas FanueleKristen OlsonMargaret PetersonLiam PrigmoreDevon RobinsonPatricia StevensKatelin StoneHONORS (All A’s & B’s):Kevin AckerleyBrendan ArditoGrace ArditoKatelyn ArditoMolly ArditoDylan ArnoldGrace BrisboisSamuel DeAngelisMatthew DohertyMichael DohertyMolly DuganRobert FarrellJillian FisherAlden GeorgeHeeweon HwangJoseph KelleyEllen KlucznikAndrew MacdonaldLogan MacDonaldAndrew ManganoAlexandra MartinsonAshley MurdockDavid OlsonMegan OlsonLindsey RosaniaKaylee TodiscoNolan VigeantJaelyn WalshFelicia Zuccola(NOTE: The above list was provided by Austin Prep.)Like Wilmington Apple on Facebook. Follow Wilmington Apple on Twitter. Follow Wilmington Apple on Instagram. Subscribe to Wilmington Apple’s daily email newsletter HERE. Got a comment, question, photo, press release, or news tip? Email this:TwitterFacebookLike this:Like Loading… RelatedSTUDENT SPOTLIGHT: 37 Wilmington Students Make Honor Roll At Austin PrepIn “Education”STUDENT SPOTLIGHT: 38 Wilmington Students Make Honor Roll At Austin PrepIn “Education”STUDENT SPOTLIGHT: 36 Wilmington Students Make Honor Roll At Austin PrepIn “Education”last_img read more

School vs School Yale SOM or SC Johnson Cornell

first_img regions: New York City Bloomberg Businessweek1211 Last Updated Mar 6, 2019 by Kelly VoFacebookTwitterLinkedinemail Financial Times (Global)1127 Deciding which school you’ll attend for your MBA isn’t easy. There are many factors that come into play when choosing the best school for you. You might be most concerned about where and what you want to study, or you could care more about reputation, alumni network, ROI, or even the application process.Unfortunately, this comparison process can get quite tricky when looking at two very similar schools. To help you out, our School vs. School series does the heavy lifting for you. Take a look at two of the best b-schools Yale SOM and SC Johnson Cornell to see which is best for you.Yale vs. Cornell: LocationYale SOM is located in New Haven, Connecticut while SC Johnson Cornell is in Ithaca, New York. In both instances, the schools are located in smaller towns where one-of-a-kind shops, boutiques, and activities rule the day. Neither location is a place where an MBA would look for a job post-graduation, but both are just a little ways outside of New York City. New Haven is under two hours away by car while Ithaca is around four hours away. As for which town is better:Cost of Living: Ithaca is 2 percent less expensive than New Haven.Housing: Ithaca housing costs 34.4 percent more.Education: New Haven spends 4 percent less per student, and the student to teacher ratio is 17.3 percent higher in New Haven.Commute: New Haven residents commute 42 percent more than residents of Ithaca.Jobs: Future job growth for New Haven is 19.38 percent compared to Ithaca, which is only 2.24 percent. Both are lower than the entire U.S., which is 30.54 percent.Overall, Ithaca is a more affordable place to live, but you’re less likely to find a job in Ithaca after graduation.Yale vs. Cornell: RankingsYale SOM and SC Johnson Cornell are both top business schools in the world. Each ranks highly across all publications with Yale SOM just edging out SC Johnson Cornell in most rankings.Yale and Cornell School Rankings Tuition$72,350$69,440 CostYale SOMSC Johnson Cornell Forbes1310 Consulting34.9%22% Yale vs. Cornell: Post-Graduation EmploymentWhen it comes to post-graduation, both Yale SOM and Cornell SC Johnson MBA students can expect many opportunities for success. About 94 percent of Cornell MBA students and 91.9 percent of Yale SOM graduates have a full-time job offer three months after graduation.Those graduates enter a range of industries with the top industries being consulting, finance, and technology. Consulting was the top industry at Yale SOM whereas Cornell students preferred finance. In both cases, most students chose to stay in the Northeast U.S. with 55 percent of Cornell graduates staying in the area and 48 percent of Yale graduates.Yale vs. Cornell Employment Yale vs. Cornell MBA: The CostEach business school costs about the same on a per-year basis. Tuition is not even $3,000 more at Yale, and when you add on the increased cost-of-living, Yale is just $5,000 more per year than Cornell. Where Cornell saves the most is in housing and food, which is only $16,800 a year compared to Yale’s distressing $22,214.When it comes to living on campus, Yale students are emptying their wallets more, paying an average annual rate of more than $22,000.However, when it comes to funding, Yale SOM wins. One in every two Yale SOM MBA students earns a merit scholarship. Even better 29 Yale MBA students end up with full-tuition scholarships. On the other hand, only 30 percent of Cornell SC Johnson students receive some scholarship assistance. However, there are many full-tuition scholarships available including 25 Park Leadership Fellowships.Yale and Cornell School Costs As for post-graduation salary, both schools are on par with each other. Graduates can expect to earn slightly over $125,000 after graduation with a bonus of around $30,000.Yale vs. Cornell Salary Full Cost$100,274$95,340 SalaryYale SOMSC Johnson Cornellcenter_img About the AuthorKelly Vo    Kelly Vo is a writer who specializes in covering MBA programs, digital marketing, and personal development.View more posts by Kelly Vo IndustryYale SOMSC Johnson Cornell Finance23.1%29% MBA Graduate Median Base Salary (2018)$127,100$126,353 PublicationYale SOMSC Johnson Cornell The Economist (Global)1417 U.S. News & World Report1115 Median Signing Bonus$30,000$33,503 Tech14.9%18% Inside Yale SOMLocated in New Haven, Connecticut, Yale SOM is one of the top business school’s in the country. Its proximity to New York City means that MBA students have access to many highly coveted networking, partnership, and placement opportunities in one of the business hubs of the world. Its programs are ranked in the top 15 in the world across all international and U.S.-based MBA rankings, regularly placing 11th overall.Program OfferingsFull-Time MBA: The two-year, full-time MBA program at Yale SOM requires students to earn 72 credits—39 of which are electives.EMBA: The 22-month Executive MBA program at Yale offers classes on alternating weekends (Friday and Saturday) and is ranked first in the world according to The Economist.There are also multiple joint degree opportunities. MBA students can pursue a joint degree with Yale Law School, Yale School of Medicine, the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, and the Yale School of Architecture.Why Yale SOM?Yale SOM emphasizes “raw” online cases. These cases attempt to capture the complexity of real decision-making.MBA students can participate in 50-plus student clubs on a variety of topics from leadership to social venture.Yale MBA students are required to complete an international component, including a 10-day trip to one or more countries. The school is also a part of an exchange program with the London School of Economics, HEC Paris, IESE, National University of Singapore, and Tsinghua University School of Economics.Inside SC Johnson CornellLocated in Ithaca, New York, the SC Johnson College of Business at Cornell University is one of the best business schools in the world. It regularly ranks in the top 25 schools globally and the top 15 schools nationally. Its proximity to NYC means that students have many opportunities for networking, internships, and more.Program OfferingsTwo-Year MBA: The two-year, full-time MBA program at Cornell includes more than 4,000 elective courses from any of Cornell’s top-ranked schools.One-Year MBA: The One-Year MBA is designed for students who have already earned a certification or are enrolled in a dual degree program.Tech MBA: The Tech MBA program is a 12-month program in the heart of New York City on Roosevelt Island. The curriculum is split into module and studios.EMBA NY: The Executive MBA program is 22 months in length and requires students to complete 60 credits every other weekend on Saturday and Sunday.There are also multiple dual degree programs including a JD/MBA and an MS/MBA. Other dual degree opportunities include a degree in Industrial and Labor Relations, Real Estate, and Health Administration.Why SC Johnson Cornell?Cornell SC Johnson offers eight immersion opportunities. These courses and their projects/cases are based on a specific career path and industry.Students have access to more than 120 electives across a range of concentrations. There are also more than 80 professional, regional, and diversity clubs students can join.Global learning is not a requirement. However, there are a large number of international business learning opportunities, including international study trips and an international exchange program.For additional insight, be sure to check out the news at both Yale and Cornell. School vs. School: Yale SOM or SC Johnson Cornell? Related7 Things You Need to Know About the 2017 U.S. News Business School RankingThis piece originally appeared in its entirety on Harvard Business School (HBS) reclaimed the number one spot in this year’s U.S. News & World Report ranking of the nation’s best MBA programs after a two-year stint in second place. Stanford Graduate School of Business (GSB), which has passed the…March 16, 2016In “Featured Home”7 Takeaways from the 2018 U.S. News Business School RankingThe schools making up the top 10 in this year’s U.S. News & World Report ranking of the nation’s best MBA programs—released today—were exactly the same as last year. That said, there are a smattering of surprises in terms of how top schools rose and fell relative to one another—and…March 14, 2017In “Featured Home”New York City’s Work/Life Balance Problems, and More – New York City NewsLet’s explore some of the most interesting stories that have emerged from New York City business schools this week. Would You Like Your Boss to be Fined for Making You Reply to Emails? – NBC News Lehigh University College of Business and Economics management professor Liuba Belkin’s work was recently cited by…May 9, 2018In “Featured Home”last_img read more