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Warren Buffett has a great investment track record. So perhaps it’s no accident that he declined to offer $1 billion for correctly predicting the outcome of all World Cup knockout stage games, as he did for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament games.The odds of winning Buffett’s NCAA challenge were about one in 7.4 billion, assuming you chose the favorite in each game as selected by FiveThirtyEight’s NCAA model. But the odds of correctly filling out a 16-team knockout tournament such as the World Cup are much shorter.In fact, though there have been some thrilling matches in the knockout stage so far — six of 12 have gone to extra time and only two were decided by more than one goal — the favorite has advanced every time (at least as according to the FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup predictions).Here is the breakdown so far. The following table lists the win probability for the FiveThirtyEight favorite as of the day of the match, along with the cumulative probability of the model having called all knockout stages correctly up to that point in time.For instance, the probability of correctly identifying the winners in each of the first four knockout matches — Brazil over Chile, Colombia over Uruguay, the Netherlands over Mexico and Costa Rica over Greece — was about 23 percent, or one chance in 4.3. And the chance of going 12 for 12, as the FiveThirtyEight favorites have done so far, is just one in 75.It’s an upset, in other words, when all the favorites prevail. On average, we’d have expected three or four upsets through this point in the knockout round.Of course, there are four matches left — counting the World Cup’s third-place playoff between the two semifinal losers. According to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, Brazil is favored over Germany on Tuesday (even after accounting for Neymar’s injury) and Argentina is slightly favored over the Netherlands on Wednesday. To complete a perfect knockout bracket, Germany would then need to beat the Netherlands in the consolation game while Brazil prevailed over Argentina in the final.All of the remaining matches look pretty close, so the FiveThirtyEight forecasts are likely to fail at some stage. If the model gets the matches right, however, it will have made good on a 1-in-553 chance of calling all 16 knockout stage winners correctly.Incidentally, this isn’t the huge success for the FiveThirtyEight model that it might seem. The FiveThirtyEight forecasts are probabilistic. Teams listed as 75 percent favorites are supposed to win about 75 percent of the time over the long run — not much less than that but also not any more often. There are supposed to be some upsets. If 75 percent favorites are winning 100 percent of the time over the long run instead, that means the forecasts are miscalibrated and overestimating the chances for the underdogs.In this case, the success of the favorites does seem to be mostly a matter of luck. Three games have gone to a penalty shootout so far — pre-match favorites might have a slight edge in those but not much of one. Mexico, meanwhile, was a few minutes away from defeating the Netherlands, and the U.S. was a few inches away from beating Belgium.The best way to test probabilistic forecasts is to check their calibration and to compare them against alternative probabilistic estimates. For example, if your model says that the U.S. has a 40 percent chance of beating Belgium and the consensus betting line gives the U.S. just a 25 percent chance instead, you should bet on the Americans — even though you expect Belgium to win most of the time. So far, the FiveThirtyEight forecasts have done well against consensus betting lines when used in this fashion — although that could reflect good luck, too.
Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsAppTurks and Caicos, August 2, 2017 – Providenciales – Former Chief Minister and longest serving TCI Parliamentarian, Hon Derek Taylor was last Wednesday, July 26, named the new Deputy Speaker of the House of Assembly. Following the shake up in the PDM Administration, where Hon Josephine Connolly was replaced by Hon Karen Malcolm as the Minister of Education, Youth, Sports and Library Services there was a hole created and questions arose about who would be the new deputy speaker; a post Malcolm had previously held.With nomination by the Premier, second by the Deputy Premier and unanimous support by members of the House, Hon Taylor took the job, the first time he functions in this capacity in 24 years and seven terms in Parliament. Today, Hon Taylor shared with Magnetic Media that he counts it an opportunity to work with the Speaker on the House of Assembly library and to interact with regional Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, CPA and the CPA as a whole.”While there was no division on or objection to the nomination vote, which was taken a week ago today, the Opposition PNP side was silent and gave no ‘aye’ or ‘nay’ in the move to make Derek Taylor the new Deputy Speaker of the House of Assembly.Hon Taylor, who chaired the inaugural budget session of the new PDM Government and who is considered the ‘grandfather of the House of Assembly’ added that he is excited about working with the youth of the TCI in the Youth Parliament.#MagneticMediaNews#Hon.DerekTaylor#TCIgetsnewDeputySpeaker Related Items: Facebook Twitter Google+LinkedInPinterestWhatsApp
If you’ve never played the original or weren’t around at the time of its 1997 release, you may be asking…What’s the deal with Final Fantasy 7? Final Fantasy is the most famous RPG franchise ever, and Final Fantasy 7 is the most famous Final Fantasy game ever. It’s sold 11 million units, according to creator Square Enix, making it the highest-selling game in the franchise. For reference, 2016’s Final Fantasy 15, which was a huge success, stands at around 8.4 million shipped.Final Fantasy was also a smash hit among critics, holding a 9.2 rating on Metacritic. GameSpot, our sister site, gave it a 9.5 upon release.It may seem crazy looking at it now, but Final Fantasy 7 was a technological masterclass in 1997. Cinematic cutscenes were modelled in full-motion video, and the blocky 3D models moved around in pre-rendered environments that blew minds at the time.You see this? These graphics were mind blowing. Square Enix Then there’s the story. In the beginning, the bad guy is Shinra Corporation, an electricity company that mines Mako, the Lifestream of the planet, slowly corroding the world in the process. They have their own military force, SOLDIER, of which Cloud Strife is a former member. Cloud begins the game as a mercenary, hired by Barrett, head of the Midgar-based AVALANCHE eco-terrorist group, for a mission to blow up a set of Mako reactors. Once we’re introduced to Sephiroth, though, everything changes. Sephiroth is a bad dude. He’s also a former SOLDIER member, the most elite fighter to ever join the force’s ranks, but was presumed dead until he resurfaces. Once he rocks up, the game becomes a hunt for Sephiroth, world’s baddest man and one of gaming’s most iconic villains. Combine an illustrious cast of heroes, like Vincent, Tifa and Aerith, with an expansive world and a deep battle system, and it becomes easy to understand why Final Fantasy 7 has had such an enduring legacy.One last plot note: If you haven’t played the original, do not read up on its story. You’ll have one of gaming’s most famous moments spoiled.Why do people want a remake?People have had a thirst for a Final Fantasy 7 Remake thanks to the efforts of Square Enix itself. The company teamed up with Sony in 2005 to give fans a huge tease. At E3, when Sony was unveiling its PlayStation 3 for the first time, this “technical demo” was shown: The action is from the first segment of the game, where Cloud and Barrett attempt to destroy a Mako reactor. The combat looks similar to how it did in the reveal trailer all those years ago, but menus have been updated and character designs tweaked. (Cloud has been hitting the gym, apparently.) Details on the next PlayStation, Twitter combats abuse The 17 most anticipated video games of 2019 New era, new storyIn another significant structural change from the original, Final Fantasy 7 Remake is to be segmented in at least two instalments. In 2015, producer Yoshinori Kitase said the game would be broken into “multiple” instalments, each of which will be the size of Final Fantasy 13. It appears those parts might be even bigger than that: Part one, releasing March 2, 2020, will span two Blu-ray discs, Kitase said at E3.There’s no word on when the second part will launch, and Square Enix says they’re still considering how many instalments the story will be told over. There’s some speculation, based on comments from Square Enix CEO Yosuke Matsuda, that subsequent parts could be released on both PlayStation 4 and 5. It sounds like the team is recreating the hell out of this game, as Director Tetsuya Nomura and Kitase, in the few interviews they’ve done, make reference to its immense scale. Another clear theme: The duo aren’t interested in a straight remake. The changes they’re making aren’t just to the combat, or to the vastness of the world, but to the story as well.”I don’t want the remake to end as something solely nostalgic. I want to get the fans of the original version excited,” Kitase said to Dengaki, translated by Gematsu. “We’ll be making adjustments to the story with this thought in mind.”Nomura added to this, enigmatically saying, “I hope that [fans of the original] can be surprised once again.” Someone took the “Cloud’s arms look weird and scrawny” criticism from the first trailer at heart! pic.twitter.com/ftRohMqo3k— Ismael Bergara (@Calavera145) May 9, 2019 Now playing: Watch this: 17 Photos What about Xbox One?In early July, Xbox Germany advertised a March 3, 2020 release date for an Xbox One version of Final Fantasy 7 Remake. Prior to that, it was thought that the game was exclusive to PlayStation 4. Unfortunately for Xbox One owners, it looks like it still is. “As previously announced, Final Fantasy 7 Remake will be released for the PlayStation 4 on March 3, 2020,” the Square Enix representative would say in a statement. “We have no plans for other platforms.” A member of Xbox Germany’s marketing team tweeted: “We did an internal mistake in the Social Team. We took the video off immediately. Sorry, no announcement on our side. Big apologies for this.”It’s certainly possible that there’s an Xbox version yet to be announced, but it’s also very possible that this was just a mistake. Cloud in Final Fantasy 7 Remake. Square Enix When I think of Final Fantasy 7 Remake, I think of its announcement at E3 2015. I remember watching it at my desk, quickly spiralling into hysterics as it became evident the onscreen trailer was for a Final Fantasy 7 Remake. It was a big day. It wasn’t just me who was excited, many more were losing it. Now, we’re within a year of the enigmatic game hitting store shelves.After over a decade of anticipation and then years of secrecy, Square Enix showed the world a whole lot of Final Fantasy 7 Remake at E3 back in June. We know a lot, including the part one release date (March 3, 2020) and how the combat system will work, but there’s still a lot we don’t know. When the second part of the game will be released, or even how many instalments there will be, still eludes us.If you’re catching up from complete ignorance, here’s a quick summary:Final Fantasy 7 Remake is a multi-part game. The instalments will be released separately.Final Fantasy 7 Remake part one hits the PlayStation 4 on March 3, 2020.The first part will take place entirely in Midgar.The new combat system combines real-time and turn-based elements.The game will be significantly different from the original, including story points. Take a much closer look at Aerith, Cloud and Barret as they appear in #FinalFantasy VII Remake…More to come in June. #FF7R pic.twitter.com/zDQYV0XT7J— FINAL FANTASY (@FinalFantasy) May 11, 2019 1:25 Comments Share your voice Culture Gaming Sony Square Those bastards showed us what Final Fantasy’s intro would look like on the PlayStation 3 when they had no intention of pulling through. Imagine George Lucas shooting a trailer for a Star Wars: A New Hope remake, flush with 2019-level cinematics and cinematography, but saying that it was only a demo and that no actual release was planed. That’s how Final Fantasy buffs felt for 10 years. Teased and unloved — until E3 2015.What should I play before Remake?If you haven’t played the original Final Fantasy 7 yet, at this point, it’s best to just wait until Remake hits on March 3, 2020.Although, there are a bunch of other Final Fantasy 7 spin-offs out there. These include Crisis Core: Final Fantasy 7, Dirge of Cerberus: Final Fantasy 7, as well as a film, Final Fantasy 7: Advent Children.You can skip almost all of these. Dirge of Cerberus was a poorly-received game set after the original, and it follows Vincent, one of the two secret characters in Final Fantasy 7. Advent Children is cool, as far as video game movies go, but it’s also set after the original game, so it won’t make much sense.That said, Crisis Core: Final Fantasy 7 was a fantastic game. It’s a prequel, following Zack Fair, who was Cloud’s mentor in SOLDIER. Playing it won’t spoil much of Final Fantasy 7’s story, so it’s absolutely worth doing. The downside? It’s only available on PSP, so you’ll need one of those lying around.Crisis Core: Final Fantasy 7 was great, but it’s only playable on PSP. Other Final Fantasy 7 spin-off titles aren’t worth fussing over. Square Enix No need to wait your turnThe remake will be drastically different to the original. That’s immediately evident in the combat: While Final Fantasy 7 was completely turn based, Final Fantasy 7 Remake is a real-time action game with turn based elements. Pressing the Square button will make Cloud swing his buster sword, and there will be similar real-time commands for dodging and blocking. As you battle enemies, your Action Time Bar (ATB) builds up. Once full, you can slow the action down to Tactical Mode, essentially bullet time, from which you can cast magic, use items or unleash Limit Breaks. However, it was also noted that players who prefer faster-paced combat can eschew this by assigning shortcuts to these actions on a menu at the bottom left on the screen, which makes the action more Kingdom Hearts-esque.You’ll be able to control more than just Cloud, though. With a press of a button you can switch to controlling other party members, with Square Enix showing off both Barrett and Tifa at E3. It seems like this is where some strategy will come in, as it was noted by Square Enix that certain characters are better to control to fight certain enemies, like Barrett against long-distance foes. Check a demo on the combat below. 7 Tags
BSE closes points 46.34 up on Jan 162K views00:00 / 00:00- 00:00:0000:00BSE closes points 46.34 up on Jan 162K viewsBusinessNew Delhi, Jan 16 (ANI): Trading at the Bombay Stock Exchange today closed 46.34 points up to stand at 28,121.89. At the National Stock Exchange the Nifty closed 19.65 points up to stand at 8,513.80. SUNTV and Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd were among the top gainers of Group A with an increase of 11.04% and 9.09% along with TV18 BROADCAST and SUZLON with an increase of 8.12% and 7.54% respectively, while the top losers of Group A include PMCFIN and RASOYPR with a decrease of 4.92% and 4.49% along with JETAIRWAYS and Welspun Corp LTD. with a decrease of 3.95% and 3.12% at the close of the markets. The Auto sector is up 35.42 points at 19,342.32 while the banking sector is down 1.89 points at 22,021.41 and the reality sector is up 8.44 points at 1,619.87. The Indian currency is up 0.05% at Rs 62.03 per dollar.Ventuno Web Player 4.50New Delhi, Jan 16 (ANI): Trading at the Bombay Stock Exchange today closed 46.34 points up to stand at 28,121.89. At the National Stock Exchange the Nifty closed 19.65 points up to stand at 8,513.80. SUNTV and Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd were among the top gainers of Group A with an increase of 11.04% and 9.09% along with TV18 BROADCAST and SUZLON with an increase of 8.12% and 7.54% respectively, while the top losers of Group A include PMCFIN and RASOYPR with a decrease of 4.92% and 4.49% along with JETAIRWAYS and Welspun Corp LTD. with a decrease of 3.95% and 3.12% at the close of the markets. The Auto sector is up 35.42 points at 19,342.32 while the banking sector is down 1.89 points at 22,021.41 and the reality sector is up 8.44 points at 1,619.87. The Indian currency is up 0.05% at Rs 62.03 per dollar.
As fears of the demonetisation-led slowdown to the Indian economy eased and quarterly earnings of auto and certain FMCG companies seemed shrugging off any major worry from the demand perspective, stock markets rebounded sharply, with the benchmark indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty attaining pre-demonetisation levels last week. ITC, 30 other stocks hit 52-week high on Friday; is it pre-budget rally?The Sensex jumped 847.96 points, or 3.14 percent, to settle at 27,882.46, while The NSE Nifty 50 index rallied by 291.90 points or 3.50 per cent to settle at 8,641.25.As markets gained strength in the run up to a pre-budget rally, for the first time after the note ban on November 8 and Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election on November 9, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were also seen convincingly buying Indian equities.However, the next lies an all-important action-packed week, which investors will be eyeing with bated breath. Budget 2017: On Wednesday (February 1), Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will present his fourth Union Budget and on Tuesday (January 31), the Economic Survey will be tabled. Even though the consensus remains that it will be a populist Budget, markets do expect the finance minister to respect the self-committed fiscal deficit to GDP target of 3.3-3.4 percent for FY 2017-18.Among other measures expected from the Budget are an upward revision of the exemption threshold for personal income tax, as well as a reduction in corporate tax rates; a road map for the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST); an increase in capital spending and other steps to boost consumption. However, markets are likely to get unnerved if the government introduces or reclassifies the definition of long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax or increases the securities transaction tax (STT).GAAR clarification: On Monday, Markets are likely to positively react to the Central Board of Direct Taxes’ clarification that the General Anti-Avoidance Rule (GAAR) will not be invoked against those foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) who can prove their main purpose is not to obtain tax benefits by locating in a certain jurisdiction. FOMC Meet: The two-day US Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 31 and February 1 and investors will be watching for the Committee’s outlook for the US economy and interest rates in 2017. At the same time, reactions to US President Trump’s decision to ban entry of citizens of seven Muslim countries into the US will be keenly watched. Facebook and Google CEOs have reacted adversely to Trump’s move. However, Indian IT companies are expected to be affected immediately.Additionally, the next round of corporate results will also decide the near-term trend of the markets. Heavyweights like Housing lender HDFC, Grasim, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Auto, ICICI Bank and ONGC will come up with their quarterly numbers the next week.
Kajal Aggarwal.PR HandoutActress Kajal Aggarwal is all set to become a global star with her upcoming flick which said to be a crossover film. She is going international with an opportunity to pair up with Jeffrey Gee Chin, who is popular in Hollywood for award-winning short film Lil Tokyo Reporter. This film will be made in three languages – English, Hindi and Telugu and Kajal will be playing the leading lady. While Jeffrey will be seen in the English version, Manchu Vishnu will be seen in the Telugu version. The shooting for the three languages will begin on July 15.The film is a relationship drama and will feature many prominent Hollywood actors in the English version and several Indian actors across the country for Hindi and Telugu versions. According to sources, the film is based on a true story. It is more about a couple who are injured in an accident and the changes in their life after that. Hunting for the lead actor of the Hindi version is still on and in addition to Kajal, the film will have one more heroine.An official confirmation from Kajal Aggarwal about this project is awaited. Further details of the film will be announced soon, The Times of India reported.Crossover films are becoming popular nowadays and this is going to be the second crossover film from the Telugu film industry. Anushka’s Nishabdam tops the list and the shooting of the film has been going on in Seattle. This film has Madhavan, Shalini Pandey, Anjali and others too in key roles.
Kolkata: On the eve of the announcement of the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to constitute the 17th Parliament, Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee has written a poem titled ‘Jaruri’ on Wednesday. In the poem, Banerjee has mentioned the recent incidents involving the Centre.Through the verses, she has repeatedly hinted at the emergency-like situation that has prevailed in the country throughout the tenure of the Modi government. In the poem, she has mentioned about note ban through the line-“Madhyo rate siddhanto- otao jaruri…” while also taking a dig at the meditation of Narendra Modi in a cave at Kedarnath through the line- “Ganatantra Guhae- otao jaruri.”
2 min read Once upon a time, serving bananas flambé — complete with fire leaping out of the pan — was an impressive way to end a dinner party. But soon, there could be an even crazier option: bringing your desktop 3-D printer to the table and serving up 3-D printed dessert made out of Nutella.Waterloo, Canada-based company Structur3D Printing has created a printer attachment called a “paste extruder” that works with most 3-D printer models and allows makers to create 3-D printed items with a variety of soft materials.Related: With $6.4 Million in New Funding, This 3-D Printed Insole Maker Is Looking HotA Kickstarter campaign for the tool launched today and has already surpassed its initial financial target. The team was hoping to raise $30,000 Canadian dollars (CAD) and, as of 2 p.m. ET, the team had already raised more than $32,500 CAD.The company intends to use the funds to produce at least 100 paste extruder units.With the attachment, which you get with a $249 CAD pledge to the campaign, you can print objects with silicone, polyurethane, wood filler, clay, ceramics, icing sugar, Nutella or conductive paint. The goal is to give inventors and makers the ability to use more than just plastic in their existing 3-D printers, allowing them to be more creative and save money as they experiment with prototypes. The plastic filament typically required in first generation 3-D printers is expensive.Related: Beyond Novelty: Architects in Amsterdam Are 3-D Printing an Entire House“There have been 3-D printers specifically designed to print different types of food or silicone. Our product is different, because we’re allowing you to make use of the printer you already have at home,” the Kickstarter campaign reads.The Discov3ry paste extruder is compatible with desktop 3-D Printers manufactured by MakerBot, Ultimaker and printrbot, among other popular brands.Related: 3-D Printers Take a Step Toward the MainstreamCheck out the video embedded below of the Discov3ry paste extruder being used with Nutella. Growing a business sometimes requires thinking outside the box. Free Webinar | Sept. 9: The Entrepreneur’s Playbook for Going Global June 10, 2014 Register Now »